TAKING THE INITIATIVE: Carl Pope’s Blog
Carl Pope
Last month was one of New England’s better Januarys. Post-Thanksgiving, the region won a rare rating from the North American Reliability Council, It warned that New England uniquely was at “high risk to natural gas pipeline capacity. It warned that “Natural gas production often falls off in extreme winter temperatures, as supply infrastructure is affected by freezing issues, and Generator Operators that fail to secure firm fuel delivery are frequently unable to access fully subscribed pipelines.”
The warning is shown below in NERC’sual winter assessment by the vertical cross bars. No region except New England was put on this super warning list.
Scattered across an array of recent NERC assessments were repeated warnings: New England’s dependence on aged and leaky gas pipelines, combined with its status as a region at the end of limited gas supplies, makes it particularly vulnerable to power outages. When gas and water combine in freezing temperatures they form gas hydrates. The hydrates freeze and plug pipelines, both those which fuel electric power lines and smaller distribution pipes which heat homes and businesses. In the last two major winter storms to hit New England before this year, the power system suffered major outages of both gas and electricity generated by gas. Indeed, more than half of the power serving the region during those major storms came from drawing down emergency supplies of oil. Had the storms lasted a few more days, oil reserves would have been depleted. The entire regional grid could have shut down in freezing weather. That, NERC had warned, was a serious threat this winter.
New England and its neighboring coastal states had developed a robust strategy to provide a reliable backstop to unreliable gas power: tap the dynamic and virtually 24/7 winter winds off its coasts. Five major Atlantic offshore wind projects, with a combined capacity of 6 GW and a demonstrated super high performance in winter storms, were poised for completion or construction over the next several years. One, Vineyard Wind was already delivering partial power. Revolution Wind, the other project closest to New England, was scheduled to start this winter. Three more projects further south would follow to stabilize the entire East Coast grid by adding 20% to the New England’s grid capacity and adding the bulk of that capacity in a winter when the region is currently vulnerable.
When President Trump on his Inauguration Day announced his hostility to wind power, particularly offshore wind, the Governors responsible for the projects that seemed most at risk negotiated with the President. He demanded, and received, their support for unneeded natural gas pipelines. In exchange, Trump promised to allow the offshore wind project to be completed. (NERC had said New England needed less reliance on gas power, but the Governors decided the offshore projects were critical, and pipelines were Trump’s price.)
Then, on December 22, Trump broke his word and issued “stop completion” orders for all five Atlantic offshore projects. Among them Vineyard win, which was already operating, and Revolution, which was about to open. The only viable, reliable strategy to stabilize the New England grid had just been blown up by the President, who had no Plan B to offer – just more gas which would simply freeze into hydrates.
The next day the weather service announced that a new, tropical storm, named Winter Storm Fern, was forming over the Gulf of Mexico and aiming to bring massive cold weather, snow and ice to a region stretching from Texas to New England. The New Year prospects for New England were grim. With work frozen on all offshore wind power, and Winter Storm Fern makings its way through the South towards New England, the region prepared for the worst. Meteorologists warned that immediately behind Fern was another Tropical storm, a Northeaster, along the Atlantic Coast.
Fern, of course, we now know, devastated much of the United States. Over a million Americans lost power; hundreds of thousands are still in the dark. The death toll is approaching 100. The damages are estimated at $6 billion. The South and the mid-Atlantic were socked the hardest. New England got record snow from Fern, but so cold was the weather that hydrate plugging of the gas system was avoided – only snow fell, no water. New Englanders kept their power-and the heat it provides. When Northeaster Gianne came roaring along the coast, like Fern it too concentrated its snow and ice on the south. Then, as it moved north, it remained far enough offshore that the New England grid was spared, narrowly, a second time.
So, 2025-6 will go down in the record book, but perhaps not the New England record book for damages. Better yet, as Fern and Gianne made their devastating way through the Eastern United States, some incredibly important good news made its way from Federal Courthouses huddling in the snow. In a series of five rulings, one for each of the offshore projects Trump had shut, federal judges lifted Trump’s “stop work” order. They allowed the 6 GW of incremental, winter weather resilient offshore wind projects to resume construction and start adding reliable power before next winter.
The Judges in each case had inspected the classified and allegedly “new” risks posed to national security by allowing power generation off the Atlantic Coast, and in each found the Trump Administration’s arguments unpersuasive and inadequate. That doesn’t mean Trump won’t appeal; but it strongly suggests that if he does, he will lose at least in the Appellate Courts.
The war on the New England grid by Washington isn’t over. And the New England States need to gird for bigger battles to come. Trump’s attacks on the only viable, reliable and domestic source of power available to an entire region are on a scale with the kind of destruction that Russia is inflicting on the Ukraine. New England must demand that Trump explain: where is the power going to come from, power that won’t freeze, power that thrive in winter storms?
This winter isn’t over either. The Vineyard Wind and Revolution projects have been delayed and won’t help for another year. But by next year they may both be online, providing New England with the affordable, reliable winter storm power it has lacked so long.
“To learn more about Carl’s views on the environment, energy and climate, read “Climate of Hope” which he has co-authored with former NYC Mayor Mike Bloomberg and which can be purchased online or from your local book store.
A veteran leader in the environmental movement, Carl Pope is the former executive director and chairman of the Sierra Club. He’s now the principal advisor at Inside Straight Strategies, looking for the underlying economics that link sustainability and economic development and serves as a Senior Climate Advisor to former NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg. He has served on the Boards of the California League of Conservation Voters, Public Voice, National Clean Air Coalition, California Common Cause, Public Interest Economics Inc, and Zero Population Growth.
Mr. Pope is also the author of the books: Sahib, An American Misadventure in India and Hazardous Waste In America. Carl Pope is the co-author with Michael Bloomberg of Climate of Hope: How Cities, Businesses, and Citizens Can Save the Planet. How to attack climate change as a series of manageable challenges, each with a solution that can make our society healthier and our economy stronger.
* This article was originally published here
No comments:
Post a Comment